Commentary

Friday February 3, 2012
Amity Shales: Untaxed majorities favor tax hikes
But lower rates and budget cuts yield prosperity
Advertiser

Tax the rich. Forever. And not just in election years.

The general assumption is that rate increases will be the new norm. The main reason for this is said to be democracy itself.

We have reached the point where just about half of all taxpayers, the lower-earning households, pay almost no income tax. Voters have no reason to endorse a tax cut that's not for them.

The group that pays high rates represents an electoral minority.

In other words, America has passed its tipping point on taxes. In fact, we are officially tipped.

There's something un-civic and creepy about this status. Everybody should pay some tax, just as everybody should vote.

As recent history shows, an untaxed majority is unlikely to reduce taxes on the taxed minority. In the 1970s and '80s, rate cuts were possible only because inflation pushed many lower-earning taxpayers into higher brackets.

Then these lower earners endorsed cuts.

Politicians prevented a repeat of that by indexing brackets.

Look further back, and you'll find there is a case of the majority helping the minority: the model of the 1920s.

In 1917, the tax schedule was highly progressive, topping out at 66 percent of income. But the income-tax schedule commenced with earners who made over $2,000 a year.

That amount was double the wage for the unskilled, and well above what skilled workers made.

So how did the rich get their cut?

Not easily. A 1918 tax law in the Woodrow Wilson administration actually tipped some more, pushing the top rate on the wealthy up further, to 77 percent from that 66 percent.

But gradually tax authorities, and with them many politicians, came to see that the high rates weren't necessarily productive for the Treasury or the economy.

The spread between the yield of earnings subject to the top income-tax rate and earnings from tax-free municipal bonds was so attractive that estates poured their cash into the bonds. By 1923, almost $4 in $10 of estates was invested in municipal bonds, compared with less than $1 in 1917.

Millionaires went on "capital strike," as the newspapers called it. Revenue to Washington generally came in below forecasts.

The waste disgusted President Warren Harding's Treasury secretary, Andrew Mellon, who treated the U.S. government as just another business to manage.

Comments

Get Daily Headlines by E-Mail

Sign up for the latest news delivered to your inbox each morning.
Advertiser