The Associated Press high school basketball polls appear each Tuesday of the regular season.
Just like clockwork, each new poll triggers a debate over what teams are overrated and what teams are getting overlooked.
In these arguments sooner or later comes the statement that "polls don't mean anything." This usually comes from a fan whose team finds itself outside the top 10, or is perhaps lower on the totem poll than said fan believes it should be.
In attempt to provide some measure of sanity (not to mention accuracy) to the rankings of the state's best boys basketball teams, we today introduce the Daily Mail Projection Index.
Sure, there are at least two other ratings systems currently in use aside from the AP poll. The MetroNews Power Index has long been a guide used by prep basketball fans to gauge where every team in the state stands. More recently, wvtailgatecentral.com has introduced an RPI system that ranks the teams in each class.
Information is never a bad thing, but if there is one thing missing from these rankings it is an end result. Other than providing more water cooler conversation there is no clear reason for their existence.
The DMPI works with a goal in mind: To project the State Tournament fields in each of the state's three competitive classes by using a rating formula that pulls from the football playoff rating system used by the Secondary School Activities Commission, with a few noteworthy tweaks.
The No. 1 teams, or seeds, in the first DMPI are not surprising given how the 2011-12 season has progressed. Martinsburg (10-0) has a wide lead in Class AAA, Bluefield (9-0) a similar buffer in Class AA and St. Marys (9-0) is just ahead of fellow unbeaten Midland Trail (9-0) in Class A.
The DMPI works simply enough. Each team gets 12 points for win against a Class AAA opponent, nine points for beating a Class AA team and six points for a Class A squad. While it borrows from the SSAC format, it also veers from that system to allow for a few truths in the pursuit of greater clarity.
For example, a team gets one bonus point for winning a game on the road, regardless of the opponent. Private schools - in-state and out-of-state - are considered as teams equivalent of the next highest classification. Therefore, Poca and Braxton County received nine points each for beating Charleston Catholic.
This isn't the time or place for the private/public debate. Any look at the Class A State Tournament fields over the past 10 years or more, however, reveals that private schools are able to parlay their increased enrollment areas into on-court success, end of story (at least for here).
The inaugural season of the DMPI also provides a peculiar situation in which teams are further differentiated. Teams such as Fairmont Senior, Robert C. Byrd and North Marion only provide opponents who beat them with nine points, since those schools have been identified by the SSAC as Class AA schools beginning next year. Those new classifications were determined using current enrollment figures, so if we want give the most accurate portrayal of strength of schedule, schools headed to new classes must be considered for the size they truly are.
A team gets a bonus point for every win a defeated opponent has over a team in the original winner's class or higher. This also is different than the SSAC football formula, in which a bonus point is awarded for every win a defeated opponent has over teams in its own class or higher.
Finally, just two teams from each region are eligible for the rankings. This provides some extra level of interest in Class AA, where there are four teams (Tug Valley, Sissonville, Tolsia and Chapmanville) that have higher Index numbers than other teams in the projected State Tournament field.
Class AAA No. 1 Martinsburg's 18.30 rating is the highest in the state. The Bulldogs' schedule, which is full of out-of-state opponents, has been grueling thus far. Martinsburg has posted two wins against Winchester, Va. Millbrook (9-4) as well as single wins over Sumter, S.C. (12-5), Harlan County, Ky. (14-2), Myrtle Beach Carolina Forest, S.C. (11-4), Rocky Mountain Prep, N.C. (12-3) and last week's AP No. 1, Hedgesville (10-1).
The DMPI will appear in the Daily Mail each Monday through the end of the regular season.
Contact Preps Editor Derek Taylor at derek.tay...@dailymail.com or 304-348-5170.
Daily Mail Projection
Index
Week ending Jan. 14
Class AAA
School Record Index
1. Martinsburg 10-0 18.30
2. Beckley 8-0 15.63
3. Fairmont Senior 9-0 13.89
The Associated Press high school basketball polls appear each Tuesday of the regular season.
Just like clockwork, each new poll triggers a debate over what teams are overrated and what teams are getting overlooked.
In these arguments sooner or later comes the statement that "polls don't mean anything." This usually comes from a fan whose team finds itself outside the top 10, or is perhaps lower on the totem poll than said fan believes it should be.
In attempt to provide some measure of sanity (not to mention accuracy) to the rankings of the state's best boys basketball teams, we today introduce the Daily Mail Projection Index.
Sure, there are at least two other ratings systems currently in use aside from the AP poll. The MetroNews Power Index has long been a guide used by prep basketball fans to gauge where every team in the state stands. More recently, wvtailgatecentral.com has introduced an RPI system that ranks the teams in each class.
Information is never a bad thing, but if there is one thing missing from these rankings it is an end result. Other than providing more water cooler conversation there is no clear reason for their existence.
The DMPI works with a goal in mind: To project the State Tournament fields in each of the state's three competitive classes by using a rating formula that pulls from the football playoff rating system used by the Secondary School Activities Commission, with a few noteworthy tweaks.
The No. 1 teams, or seeds, in the first DMPI are not surprising given how the 2011-12 season has progressed. Martinsburg (10-0) has a wide lead in Class AAA, Bluefield (9-0) a similar buffer in Class AA and St. Marys (9-0) is just ahead of fellow unbeaten Midland Trail (9-0) in Class A.
The DMPI works simply enough. Each team gets 12 points for win against a Class AAA opponent, nine points for beating a Class AA team and six points for a Class A squad. While it borrows from the SSAC format, it also veers from that system to allow for a few truths in the pursuit of greater clarity.
For example, a team gets one bonus point for winning a game on the road, regardless of the opponent. Private schools - in-state and out-of-state - are considered as teams equivalent of the next highest classification. Therefore, Poca and Braxton County received nine points each for beating Charleston Catholic.
This isn't the time or place for the private/public debate. Any look at the Class A State Tournament fields over the past 10 years or more, however, reveals that private schools are able to parlay their increased enrollment areas into on-court success, end of story (at least for here).
The inaugural season of the DMPI also provides a peculiar situation in which teams are further differentiated. Teams such as Fairmont Senior, Robert C. Byrd and North Marion only provide opponents who beat them with nine points, since those schools have been identified by the SSAC as Class AA schools beginning next year. Those new classifications were determined using current enrollment figures, so if we want give the most accurate portrayal of strength of schedule, schools headed to new classes must be considered for the size they truly are.
A team gets a bonus point for every win a defeated opponent has over a team in the original winner's class or higher. This also is different than the SSAC football formula, in which a bonus point is awarded for every win a defeated opponent has over teams in its own class or higher.
Finally, just two teams from each region are eligible for the rankings. This provides some extra level of interest in Class AA, where there are four teams (Tug Valley, Sissonville, Tolsia and Chapmanville) that have higher Index numbers than other teams in the projected State Tournament field.
Class AAA No. 1 Martinsburg's 18.30 rating is the highest in the state. The Bulldogs' schedule, which is full of out-of-state opponents, has been grueling thus far. Martinsburg has posted two wins against Winchester, Va. Millbrook (9-4) as well as single wins over Sumter, S.C. (12-5), Harlan County, Ky. (14-2), Myrtle Beach Carolina Forest, S.C. (11-4), Rocky Mountain Prep, N.C. (12-3) and last week's AP No. 1, Hedgesville (10-1).
The DMPI will appear in the Daily Mail each Monday through the end of the regular season.
Contact Preps Editor Derek Taylor at derek.tay...@dailymail.com or 304-348-5170.
Daily Mail Projection
Index
Week ending Jan. 14
Class AAA
School Record Index
1. Martinsburg 10-0 18.30
2. Beckley 8-0 15.63
3. Fairmont Senior 9-0 13.89
4. Morgantown 8-1 13.56
5. South Charleston 8-1 13.39
6. Hedgesville 10-1 13.18
7. Winfield 9-2 12.00
8. George Washington 5-2 11.00
Class AA
School Record Index
1. Bluefield 9-0 13.94
2. Tug Valley 6-1 12.36
3. Sissonville 11-0 10.95
4. Oak Hill 5-2 10.29
5. Webster County 8-1 9.89
6. Grafton 6-2 9.75
7. Magnolia 10-2 8.83
8. Point Pleasant 6-4 6.80
Class A
School Record Index
1. St. Marys 9-0 11.33
2. Midland Trail 9-0 10.77
3. Moorefield 7-1 10.38
4. Trinity 8-3 9.00
5. Madonna 7-2 8.78
6. Charleston Cath. 6-2 7.75
7. St. Joseph 9-4 6.85
8. Meadow Bridge 6-3 6.63
